RANDOM THOUGHTS ON UHURU KENYYATTA....

INTERVIEW IDEAS

UHURU KENYATTA; -- ON THE CAPITAL MARKETS

On Friday, Feb 20, the Nairobi Stock Exchange posted its worst intra-week performance, with just two counters rising on the day, and trading activity cut in half, compared to Thursday's levels.

On Thursday, Feb 19, the Finance Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta, announced a sweeping change of the management of the capital markets, with the boards of the Capital Markets Authority, the Nairobi Stock Exchange and the Central Depository and Settlement Corporation, all to be overhauled. Micah Cheseram, a former Central Bank governor, talked tough upon his appointment as the Chairman of the CMA's Board; -- but what's his ace in the hole? What's his game plan?

More importantly though, what exactly does the market's reaction imply for the manner in which the market; -- or the investing public for that matter --; regards Uhuru Kenyatta's move?

Is he a man who knows what he's doing? Does the investing public trust him?

No-one's said anything negative in the public domain [to my knowledge so far], but these numbers hint at something far darker, and more ominous than we'd care to imagine.

UHURU KENYATTA; -- ON GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK

On February, Monday 23; -- the Finance Minister announced that provisional estimates indicated that the Kenyan economy only grew by only between 2.0 and 2.5%.

Here's how Reuters reported it;

Kenya cuts '08 growth estimate again for to 2-2.5 pct
(adds details)
NAIROBI, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Kenya's Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta said on Monday provisional estimates showed east Africa's largest economy grew between 2.0 and 2.5 percent in 2008 due to a post-election crisis and the global slowdown.
"Provisional estimates of gross domestic output show that growth may have edged around 2-2.5 percent in 2008," Kenyatta said in a speech in Nairobi.
The government had last year forecast between 4.5-6.0 percent growth as the impact of two months of political violence in January and February became clear, as well as the darkening international scenario.
It then lowered that again in January to 3.5-4.0 percent. [ID:nL6498644]
The new figures from Kenyatta, appointed last month, were in line with most analysts' predictions for 2008, which was a disastrous year for Kenya's economy after robust growth in previous years.
"This good economic story was in 2008 interrupted largely by our own misadventure," Kenyatta said.
"The post-election violence affected hard the agriculture and transport sectors, which in turn impacted adversely on the other sectors of the economy. In addition, other external developments -- drought, exceptionally high oil prices, and the meltdown of the world economy associated with the global financial crisis -- caused even more damage to the economy."
Growth was 7.0 percent in 2007.
A Reuters poll of analysts last month predicted, on average, just over 4 percent growth for Kenya in 2009.

Free version at http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE51M08Q20090223

The most instructive line he dropped there comes in the 6th paragraph; -- "This good economic story was in 2008 interrupted largely by our own misadventure."

It’s a candid admission; -- the question however is how do we fix it?